Recompetes are the most predictable opportunity flow in federal contracting. About 70% of federal contracts get recompeted; the remaining 30% are extended, transferred, or cancelled. Of the 70%, the timing is constrained by the original contract’s period of performance and option years.
If you can predict which contracts are coming up for recompete in the next 12 months before the agency posts the solicitation, you can:
- Build the relationship with the contracting officer in advance.
- Position past performance with subcontractor introductions.
- Pre-write the technical narrative.
- Shape the agency’s market research (sources sought RFIs).
Most firms compete for solicitations after they post. The firms that win consistently compete for recompetes 6-12 months before they post.
How to predict
Three data sources, combined:
- Original contract end date. USASpending shows the original period of performance. The recompete posts roughly 6 months before the original end date — if the agency intends to recompete.
- Option years exercised. If the agency has exercised all option years, the contract is genuinely at end-of-life and recompete is likely. If they’ve skipped option years, the recompete may slip or the contract may be terminated for convenience.
- Agency forecasting. Federal agencies publish acquisition forecasts annually (DoD’s “Forecast of Contract Opportunities,” GSA’s MAS forecasting page, individual agency procurement plans). These forecasts are not legally binding but they’re the closest thing to “what we plan to do this year.”
Combine all three and you get a probability ranking of which contracts will recompete when.
What VectorBrief automates
We pull USAspending awards, parse the period of performance and option-year structure, cross-reference with each agency’s published forecast, and surface “expected recompete in next N months” with a confidence score. Subscribers see this on the agency-intel page for every agency they’ve flagged.
Result: by the time a recompete posts to SAM.gov, you’ve had 6-12 months of preparation. That’s the structural advantage. /pricing.